Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.875245 1.025859 1.194557 1.397538 1.635219 1.904828 2.234053
2024-10-20 0.606061 0.795233 1.032004 1.350277 1.767372 2.296077 3.018465
2024-10-27 0.462895 0.658264 0.922928 1.307997 1.854903 2.605451 3.716921
2024-11-03 0.387686 0.588491 0.878552 1.328598 2.010978 3.009904 4.589424
2024-11-10 0.351178 0.563995 0.888935 1.421936 2.277141 3.601030 5.816803
2024-11-17 0.312307 0.527402 0.872450 1.467217 2.470929 4.104167 6.980059
2024-11-24 0.274434 0.485106 0.838587 1.476041 2.602394 4.520380 8.057718
2024-12-01 0.240243 0.442933 0.797405 1.463844 2.692450 4.874171 9.073808
2024-12-08 0.212717 0.407919 0.762761 1.456405 2.786918 5.244144 10.167418
2024-12-15 0.192433 0.382967 0.742188 1.470690 2.921386 5.701656 11.487049
2024-12-22 0.167365 0.344936 0.691434 1.418946 2.919802 5.898578 12.322734
2024-12-29 0.162154 0.345651 0.715781 1.519353 3.234616 6.755727 14.616264
2025-01-05 0.142048 0.313159 0.669921 1.470812 3.239623 6.995219 15.673918
2025-01-12 0.124547 0.283761 0.626637 1.421958 3.238030 7.223383 16.749956
2025-01-19 0.109831 0.258276 0.588063 1.377478 3.238848 7.455447 17.868622
2025-01-26 0.101846 0.246957 0.579209 1.399183 3.393751 8.053553 19.931211
2025-02-02 0.099746 0.249196 0.601582 1.497507 3.743966 9.152353 23.370255
2025-02-09 0.094492 0.242956 0.603054 1.545208 3.977660 10.005888 26.331989
2025-02-16 0.087536 0.231398 0.589986 1.554504 4.115985 10.643995 28.839424
2025-02-23 0.080166 0.217668 0.569547 1.541655 4.194668 11.141136 31.048837
2025-03-02 0.073808 0.205695 0.551968 1.533819 4.285554 11.682702 33.464456
2025-03-09 0.069091 0.197517 0.543258 1.548867 4.441361 12.419701 36.544340
2025-03-16 0.061954 0.181522 0.511299 1.494358 4.393875 12.593118 38.029909